Brazil remains outside any interstate armed conflict as of 21 September 2026, and the files that dominated its security picture a week earlier — the institutional crisis at the Supreme Court, the security-and-trade dispute with the United States, organized-crime enforcement in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, and a presidential campaign now less than two weeks from its 4 October first round — all moved during the week without any of them resolving. At the Supreme Court, the full bench convened on 15 September to take up the federal police material that Justice André Mendonça had unsealed on 1 September concerning Justice Alexandre de Moraes's alleged links to Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed owner of the collapsed Banco Master; the most politically explosive strand, according to The Rio Times (September 2026), is a contract worth more than R$130 million between the bank and the law firm of de Moraes's wife, Viviane Barci de Moraes. AP reported (via the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 16 September 2026) that Chief Justice Edson Fachin — who had taken over as rapporteur of the matter on 12 September, replacing Mendonça — opened the session by reading the police report; that two of the ten justices then withdrew, Kassio Nunes Marques saying his role presiding over the electoral court prevented him from taking part in a decision that could affect the campaign, while separately denying that his son had received money from the bank, and José Dias Toffoli, who had earlier stepped away from the Banco Master case over his own links to Vorcaro; and that the court suspended deliberations without reaching a vote on whether to open an investigation into de Moraes, with a decision postponed possibly until mid-December. Latin Times reported (September 2026) that the participating justices split 4–3 and that the question of whether to investigate one of their own was left frozen, and The Rio Times reported that the stall followed a request by Justice Flávio Dino for more time to review the case, that nothing has been rescheduled on de Moraes's side, and that the related matter concerning Mendonça remains on the court's calendar for 23 September (The Rio Times, September 2026). De Moraes has not been charged with anything, and the court has not decided whether he should be investigated. The dispute with Washington acquired a new document on 15 September, when President Donald Trump transmitted to Congress the annual presidential determination on major drug transit and drug-producing countries for fiscal year 2027, published in the Federal Register on 18 September (White House, 15 September 2026; US Department of State, September 2026; Federal Register, 18 September 2026). Brazil appears on neither the list of 23 major transit or producing countries nor among the four — Afghanistan, Bolivia, Burma and Colombia — found to have 'failed demonstrably' to meet their counternarcotics obligations, but the accompanying memorandum states that Brazil's government has failed to confront the two groups the United States designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations in June, the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho (CV), asserts that they have turned the country into a central hub for the global cocaine flow, and calls on Brazil to urgently take aggressive measures to confront and defeat them (US Department of State, September 2026; The Rio Times, September 2026). Brazil's government rebutted that characterization (The Rio Times, September 2026), and O Tempo reported (18 September 2026) that President Lula, while accompanying integrated public security actions in Rio de Janeiro, again said he does not accept that the factions are terrorists as Trump claims, arguing that terrorism properly describes state terrorism and struggles for power, pointing to the 8 January 2023 attack on the seats of government in Brasília and saying that former president Jair Bolsonaro had practised 'state terrorism'. On the trade side, Xinhua reported (15 September 2026) that Development, Industry and Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa expects to meet US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in person during the G20 trade ministerial in Milwaukee on 30 September and 1 October, with Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira expected to join him — the first face-to-face session since the 31 August virtual meeting at which the two sides agreed to resume dialogue. Rosa said 'the conversation is open, and Brazil is willing to negotiate', adding that Brazil rejects what it regards as unjustified unilateral tariffs but does not intend to answer by closing its own economy or entering a trade war, and Xinhua noted that Brazilian exports to the United States fell 13 percent year on year to $17.4 billion in the first half of 2026, taking the US share of Brazil's exports to 9.4 percent, its lowest since 1997 (Xinhua, 15 September 2026). The combined 37.5 percent US tariffs imposed in July remain in force, and no negotiated outcome had been reported as of 21 September. In São Paulo, the state prosecutor's office and the Civil Police launched Operação Vectura Corrupta on 17 September, the third phase of an investigation into alleged PCC infiltration of the capital's bus system, serving 16 temporary arrest warrants and 18 search warrants against a scheme prosecutors say used front companies, rigged tenders, political backing and money laundering to benefit the faction, with former city councilman Milton Leite among those named as targets (Agência Brasil, 17 September 2026; Diário do Grande ABC, 17 September 2026); O Tempo reported (20 September 2026) that a court upheld the temporary detention of 11 of those arrested, while several targets had not been located (Diário do Estado de São Paulo, 17 September 2026). Agência Brasil's Radioagência Nacional separately reported in September on an operation against a PCC nucleus accused of laundering some R$1 billion in São Paulo. In Rio de Janeiro, the National Public Security Force's current 90-day mandate, set by Justice Ministry Ordinance 1,252 of 2 July and covering roughly 150 agents supporting patrols on Avenida Brasil, the Linha Vermelha and the Linha Amarela, runs to 27 September (CNN Brasil, July 2026; Metrópoles, 2026); whether it will be renewed through the election had not been reported in material reviewed through 21 September, and no large-scale police raid in the state was reported during the week. CNN reported (9 September 2026) that drones have become organized crime's weapon of choice across Latin America and that governments are struggling to keep up, recalling that gang members allegedly used one against police during the October 2025 Operation Containment raid — the deadliest in Brazilian history, with an official toll of 121 and a public defender's count of at least 132 (CNN, October 2025). The US strike campaign against alleged drug-trafficking vessels continued in the Caribbean: US Southern Command said Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere carried out a lethal strike on a go-fast vessel on 19 September that killed four people, citing what it called confirmed intelligence of narco-trafficking without publishing evidence, bringing AP's tally to at least 231 people killed in 69 strikes in the nearly a year since the campaign began (AP, 20 September 2026; Stars and Stripes, 20 September 2026); none of the strikes has been recorded in Brazilian waters, and no US military or law-enforcement action inside Brazil has been reported. In the Amazon, federal enforcement against illegal gold mining continued on two fronts: the Federal Police and Ibama destroyed a hydraulic excavator, five stationary motors, two generators, a motorcycle and two camps on 9–10 September in the Roosevelt and Parque do Aripuanã Indigenous Territories near Espigão D'Oeste, Rondônia (Gazeta da Amazônia, 11 September 2026; News Rondônia, 11 September 2026), and on 15–16 September the Federal Police, Ibama and Funai struck river-dredging operations on the Teles Pires and São Manuel rivers in the Kayabi Indigenous Territory at Apiacás, Mato Grosso, disabling 16 dredging rafts, five diving rafts, five boats, a tugboat, four motor pumps and roughly 37,700 litres of fuel (Polícia Federal, September 2026; Folha de Vilhena, 20 September 2026; Agora MT, September 2026). InSight Crime reports that smaller groups of miners have adapted and remain inside the Yanomami territory despite the removal of the large open camps, and that Yanomami and Ye'kwana leaders from Brazil and Venezuela asked both governments in May for a binational plan against mining, while SUMAÚMA reports that Yanomami leaders are demanding a new strategy for 2027 (InSight Crime, 2026; SUMAÚMA, 2026). On the northern frontier, the National Public Security Force deployment to Boa Vista and Pacaraima, first authorized in January after US military action in Venezuela and since extended for a further 90 days (Agência Brasil, January 2026; Roraima em Tempo, 2026), remains the standing posture, with no new escalation reported. Polling continues to frame the stakes: Datafolha's survey of 2,002 voters on 15–16 September put Lula at 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36 percent in the first round, with the remaining candidates in single digits, and Lula ahead 46 to 44 percent in a runoff — a statistical tie within its two-point margin of error (Reuters, 17 September 2026; Imirante, 17 September 2026) — after Quaest's 3–6 September survey had put the runoff at 41 percent apiece (Reuters, 7 September 2026). These files remain matters of judicial politics, law enforcement, sanctions, tariffs, diplomacy, electoral competition, and border and environmental management rather than armed conflict in the interstate sense.
Last reviewed 2026-09-21 · 2 weeks ago